| EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | USDCHF | |
| 1.6200 T | 2.1162 S | 111.92 K | 1.1191 K | |
| 1.6000 K | 2.0100 K | 110.40 M | 1.0852 M | |
| 1.5500 P | 1.9363 S | 110.10 T | 1.0882 M | |
| 1.4900 | 1.9035 | 109.95 | 1.0870 | |
| 1.4816 M | 1.9126 M | 108.59 S | 1.0500 K | |
| 1.4780 S | 1.9105 T | 102.73 S | 1.0000 P | |
| 1.4440 T | 1.8969 M | 100.00 P | 0.9637 K | |
| S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot | ||||
EurUsd Market dropped to 1.4881 low on Monday breaking below 1.5304 former strong support from 13th June. Further weakness below 1.5000 will put the focus on 1.4779 26th February low. Strong support holds 1.4685 22nd January low. On the upside, only a return over 1.5500 will release actual pressure and put key initial resistance 1.6000 into focus. A break up there would open the way to Trendline resistance 1.6200.
GbpUsd Cable hit 2.0158 high 4-weeks ago and 1.9067 low last week. Key level holds 2.0100 resistance. On the downside, Friday break below on 1.9337 January low support lead to the break of 1.9105 (50% retracement of 1.7049 – 2.1162 advance). Former support 1.9363 holds strong resistance. Initial support holds 1.8970 today low.
UsdJpy Last 3-weeks recovery pushed the market up to 110.40 high on Friday. The last break of 108.59 former resistance put focus on 110.10 strong resistance (Trendline). Further advance would open the way toward 111.92 early January high. On the downside, a return below 108.59 former resistance will undermine the current advance. Profit taking might bring back down to 105 level and may open the way toward 102.73 support and 100 pivot point.
UsdChf Recent Dollar strength pushed over 1.0500 last week and hit 1.0882 high on Monday. Market broke up resistance of the 3-months upper trendline at 1.0766 last week. Initial support holds 1.0500 key level. Renewed weakness below 1.0375 would retest the 1.0000 pivot point and may open the way toward 0.9637 17th March low.
The Dollar rallied to a five-and-a-half month high against the Euro on Monday, boosted by another drop in Crude Oil prices and speculation that the US economy slowdown was spreading worldwide. EurUsd, which last week suffered its biggest weekly fall since its 1999 inception, briefly fell below the 1.4900 level on Monday.
Mounting signs of economic difficulties in Europe, Asia and Australia have diminished prospects of higher interest rates outside the United States, bolstering demand for the Dollar. Declining Oil prices helped ease worries about the impact of higher energy costs on the US economy and also helped boost demand for the greenback.
Yesterday, EurUsd was 0.65% lower at 1.4910, after hitting 1.4881 lowest trading level since February 26th. UsdJpy was fairly unchanged at 110.16 after trading as high as 110.40. UsdChf rose 0.39% to 1.0864 rebounding from intraday 1.0742 low. GbpUsd dropped 0.47% to 1.9114 reversing from intraday 1.9256 high.
The euro briefly recouped some of its losses after European Central Bank council member Klaus Liebscher warned that policy-makers remained focused on taming high inflation. Liebscher told Market News International that inflation risks remained to the upside in the medium term and that there is no room for "complacency" on euro zone interest rates and inflation.
Demand for the Swiss franc rose on news of the fighting between Russia and Georgia. EurChf traded near a three-week low of 1.6168 and ended down 0.26% at 1.6198.
Source Investor's Business Daily (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the second week of the current month;
Next Release Sep 9, 2008
FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level if economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;
Acronyms Investor's Business Daily (IBD), TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP);
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Source National Statistics (latest release)
Measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends;
Next Release Sep 16, 2008
FF Notes This is considered the UK's most important inflation data because it's used as the central bank's inflation target;
Why Traders
Care Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Derived Via The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling;
Acronyms Consumer Price Index (CPI);
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Source METI (latest release)
Measures Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;
Next Release Sep 12, 2008
FF Notes The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are two versions of this indicator released about 15 days apart - Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders
Care It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle, and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
Source Bank of Japan (latest release)
Measures Change in the price of goods sold by corporations;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 11 days after the month ends;
Next Release Sep 10, 2008
Why Traders
Care It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when corporations charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
Also Called Domestic CGPI;
Acronyms Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI);
The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) measures monthly changes in the selling prices of new residential houses. The NHPI is used as the inflation measure of new home construction.
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Source CMHC (latest release)
Measures Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 9 days after the month ends;
Next Release Sep 9, 2008
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Market impact tends to vary and is occasionally quite hefty;
Why Traders
Care It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder; Acronyms Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC);
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